Case studies and reports


Case studies

Click on the titles below to see detailed results from the studies.

November 25, 2020: BC by health region

The BC government makes available the number of cases each day, divided into sex, age, and health region. The data differs somewhat from that used in the Canada-wide studies, possibly due to corrections in the dates assigned to each positive case.

The province saw COVID-19 growth in all regions, in October, with the strongest growth in the two Vancouver health regons. At the beginning of November, new restrictions came into force in Vancouver, and the data now shows a decline in cases - with more data, the daily growth (decline) will be better estimated.

November 25, 2020: 9 provinces

This is an update of the previous provincial analysis, now using data from March 1 - November 24.

To characterize the observed case histories, it is necessary to include the following transitory effects:

The agreement between the model and the provincial case data is good, considering the relatively small number of parameters used. Click on the link above to see the results.

November 22, 2020: USA by state

This is a analysis that uses data on hospitalizations recently made available by the US HHS. Prior to this analysis, hospitalization data from the Covid Tracking Project has been used.

November 15, 2020: USA by state

This is the latest analysis prepared for the COVID-19 Forecast Hub, in coordination with the US CDC.

Most states are showing rapid growth in cases and hospitalizations. A summary of total US cases and deaths is shown along with a forecast that assumes no change to current practice.


Click on the above image to see a time lapse animation of how COVID-19 spread through the USA. The colors indicate the fraction of the population in each state who are contagious. The scale is logrithmic: a difference of 1 unit corresponds to a factor of 10 in the contagious fraction. The above still image is the snapshot for November 15.

October 5, 2020: California by age

California provides daily case, hospitalization, and death data by age group. This provides useful data to study how to model a non-homogenous population.

June 25, 2020: 13 German states

This study was used to demonstrate the methods to characterize the spread of CoViD-19 in the paper shown at the top of this page. Data from 13 states that reported at lease 2000 cases by the end of June 2020 were included. This is an excellent sample for confirming the statistical treatment, since all the states were subject to the same public health measures and testing policies. For more information about the findings, please refer to the paper.

June 24, 2020: Brazil states

An initial study of Brazil data: fitting to death data only.

Possible future studies

Archive of older studies

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