June 24, 2020 Analysis of Brazil state data

Data from March 1-June 23 were included in this analysis. The case data does not follow the expected steady state trajectories. Instead, the death data was fit, yielding, reasonable fits. The case data shows a faster growth rate than the death data.

Acre

ac

Alagoas

al

Amapa

ap

Amazonas

am

Bahia

ba

Ceara

ce

Distrito Federal

df

Espirito Santo

es

Goias

go

Maranhao

ma

Mato Grosso

mt

Para

pa

Paraiba

pb

Parana

pr

Pernambuco

pe

Piaui

pi

Rio de Janeiro

rj

Rio Grande do Norte

rn

Rio Grande do Sul

rs

Sao Paulo

sp

Tables

The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.3. These are shown for purposes of comparison.

daily growth/decline rates (δ)

state δ0 day 1 δ1 day 2 δ2 day 3 δ3
AC 0.076 72 -0.035        
AL 0.103 58 0.004        
AM 0.137 46 -0.033        
AP 0.099 60 -0.006        
BA 0.072 62 0.015        
CE 0.089 55 0.001        
DF 0.072 20 0.021 44 0.113 60 0.038
ES 0.092 54 0.023        
GO 0.104 36 0.035        
MA 0.162 41 0.010        
MT 0.191 27 0.003 50 0.091    
PA 0.173 57 -0.041        
PB 0.142 35 0.030        
PE 0.098 51 -0.010        
PI 0.126 55 0.038        
PR 0.162 25 -0.062 47 0.060    
RJ 0.200 30 0.052 69 -0.042    
RN 0.058 80 -0.025        
RS 0.209 20 0.002 40 0.029    
SP 0.199 24 0.024 59 0.010    

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