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October 16, 2022 Analysis of EU national data

This is an update to the analysis approach first used for the July 2022 analyses of European data. See the descriptions from those pages for background about the analysis. The method uses hospital admission data alone to estimate population-level immunity by the shape of the BA.2 wave.

Model fits to data: waning of immunity is clearly established

Hospital admission data from August 14 (except for Norway) followed the projections from the analysis of August 7 data which used models without waning. In this report, the waning parameters were adjusted to best match the data available as of October 16. The ECDC hospital admission data repository has stale data, so the OWID repository has been used to supplement the ECDC data.

With this most recent data, the exponential growth rate (%/day) for Belgium, France, and UK are now seen to be declining, suggesting that the peak hospital admissions will be seen in the coming weeks. Growth is now clearly seen for Switzerland.











United Kingdom


waning parameter fit results

The model for Ireland was not adjusted this week: it is the same as fitted for the October 9 analysis.

Country a_5 escape frac wane frac wane delay wane sigma
Belgium 2.8 0.054 0.109 257.0 10.9
France 2.2 0.092 0.293 256.3 28.7
Ireland 1.5 0.087 0.602 199.3 60*
Norway 2.0 0.015 0.464 294.2 60*
Switzerland 3.0 0.039 0.293 235.4 60*
United Kingdom 2.1 0.059 0.66 294.6 80.9

comparison of waning and infection rates

The figure below shows the daily waning and infection rates (as fractions of the entire populations). The resurgance of BA.5 is due to waning immunity, and once new infection rates exceed waning rates, the growth rate becomes negative again.


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