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September 13, 2021 Analysis of Canadian provincial data

This summarizes analyses of data from the Canadian provinces with substantial cases. The model includes additional infection cycles to represent the alpha and delta variants of concern. Past vaccination rates are included in the models.

Current fits to data

Apart from BC and Manitoba, the other large provinces have recently been experiencing rapid growth in cases. Growth rates (measured in % per day) are slowly declining.

European nations have experienced similar transitions to rapid growth due to delta and several have been able to reduce or turn the growth around. The rapid growth was also seen in all US states, and the growth continued for a long period of time, before recently subsiding. Model fits to EU and US states can be found here.

Updated model fits to provincial data are shown below on linear and log-scale:

BC

Detailed BC analyses are reported in the BC analysis page.

Alberta

ab

Saskatchewan

sk

Manitoba

sk

Ontario

on

Quebec

qc

Current growth rate

The table below indicates the growth rates for each region for recent analyses

Rpovince Aug 30 Sep 7 Sep 13
BC +2% / day +1% / day +1% / day
Alberta +6% / day +4% / day +2% / day
Saskatchewan +5% / day +5% / day +4% / day
Manitoba - - / day +2% / day
Ontario +4% / day +3% / day +1% / day
Quebec +4% / day +4% / day +2% / day

Provincial histories and projections with hospital occupancy

Linear and log scale are shown to see details. Generally, hospitalization is rising in accord with the model projection that assumes the fraction of cases that lead to hospitalization is constant throughout the year.

Alberta

ab ab

Saskatchewan

sk sk

Ontario

on on

Quebec

qc qc

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