October 4, 2021 Analysis of BC regional data
This page shows results of analyses reported in our regular BC COVID-19 Modelling Group reports.
Fits to each health authority case data
The public health measures brought into force have stopped or slowed the growth in daily cases in all health regions.
The following shows graphs of daily cases on linear and log scale.
The dashed curves illustrate how cases from the variants overtook the cases from the original strains, and note the hypothesized introduction of delta at a low level and low rate of growth, consistent with what was known at that time.
BC total
Fraser
Interior
Island
Coastal
Northern
Comparison of case rates for the health authorities
The recent case history for all health authorities are compared on log scale below.
The animated figure below shows how the projections change from week to week as more data are collected. For the September 7 projection, large uncertainties on the growth rate were indicated, given the recent transition.
The table below indicates the growth rates (shown as percent per day) for each region for recent analyses. The trend to reduced growth rates is evident. Typical uncertainty (68% CL) is about 1%/day. For estimates shortly after a transition, the uncertainties are larger, and are included in the table.
| Region | Aug 10 | Aug 16 | Aug 24 | Aug 30 | Sep 7 | Sep 13 | Sep 21 | Sep 28 | Oct 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | +9% | +8% | +3% | +2% | +1% +/- 1% | +1% +/- 1% | 0% | -1% | -1% |
| Fraser | +8% | +7% | +7% | +3% | +2% +/- 1% | +2% +/- 1% | +1% | 0% | -1% |
| Interior | +8% | +6% | +1% | 0% | -1% +/- 1% | -1% +/- 1% | -2% | -3% | -2% |
| Coastal | +7% | +7% | +6% | +2% | -2% +/- 3% | -1% +/- 2% | -1% | -2% | -2% |
| Island | +9% | +9% | +7% | +4% | -3% +/- 4% | +1% +/- 3% | +1% | +1% | 0% |
| Northern | +15% | +14% | +10% | +5% | +5% +/- 3% | +5% +/- 2% | +2% | +1% | +1% |
The plot below compares the daily cases as a proportion of HA population. Cases per capita in the Northern HA is similar to the levels in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Hospitalization projections
The figure below shows unfitted projections for hospital and ICU occupancy, assuming the growth in case rates from the figure above. It can be seen in the graphs that growth in hospital occupancy are delayed compared to the growth in cases. The rise in hospitalization due to the recent growth of delta is apparent, although the ICU occupancy is somewhat higher that the projection.
The plots are shown in linear and log-scale.
