June 25, 2020 Analysis of German state data
This shows the results of fits to data from the 13 German states with more than 2000 cases by the end of June 2020. The study is described in detail as in the paper Charaterizing the spread of CoViD-19.
Below shows the case and deaths data for the 13 states compared to the pypm model fit to the case data.
The red curves (contagious population) is the inferred contagious population. Its shape is determined from the case data. Its scale is not well known.
Following are tables and figures comparing the different states as well as the infection status plots, that summarize the growth and size of the epidemic. PDF versions of plots are available by clicking on the titles
Baden-Warttemberg
Bavaria
Berlin
Brandenburg
Hamburg
Hesse
Lower Saxony
North Rhine-Westphalia
Rhineland-Palatinate
Saarland
Saxony
Schleswig-Holstein
Thuringia
Tables
The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.3. These are shown for purposes of comparison.
daily growth/decline rates (δ)
| state | δ0 | d1 | δ1 | d2 | δ2 | δ3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bw | 0.288 +/- 0.024 | 12 | 0.105 +/- 0.007 | 24 | -0.049 +/- 0.002 | -0.060 +/- 0.009 |
| by | 0.256 +/- 0.022 | 14 | 0.16 +/- 0.011 | 23 | -0.049 +/- 0.002 | -0.041 +/- 0.01 |
| be | 0.402 +/- 0.036 | 7 | 0.131 +/- 0.013 | 20 | -0.038 +/- 0.005 | -0.021 +/- 0.036 |
| bb | 0.345 +/- 0.036 | 10 | 0.102 +/- 0.019 | 26 | -0.031 +/- 0.007 | -0.086 +/- 0.027 |
| hh | 0.410 +/- 0.029 | 9 | 0.122 +/- 0.016 | 20 | -0.043 +/- 0.005 | -0.061 +/- 0.031 |
| he | 0.354 +/- 0.039 | 11 | 0.078 +/- 0.013 | 23 | -0.031 +/- 0.004 | -0.026 +/- 0.01 |
| ni | 0.494 +/- 0.019 | 5 | 0.160 +/- 0.01 | 21 | -0.039 +/- 0.003 | 0.002 +/- 0.007 |
| nw | 0.274 +/- 0.046 | 5 | 0.134 +/- 0.009 | 22 | -0.038 +/- 0.002 | -0.029 +/- 0.007 |
| rp | 0.483 +/- 0.023 | 9 | 0.075 +/- 0.011 | 23 | -0.047 +/- 0.004 | -0.028 +/- 0.021 |
| sl | 0.282 +/- 0.031 | 13 | 0.108 +/- 0.015 | 28 | -0.073 +/- 0.009 | -0.031 +/- 0.043 |
| sn | 0.426 +/- 0.031 | 10 | 0.108 +/- 0.015 | 23 | -0.045 +/- 0.006 | -0.033 +/- 0.022 |
| sh | 0.355 +/- 0.032 | 8 | 0.148 +/- 0.024 | 21 | -0.041 +/- 0.007 | -0.056 +/- 0.032 |
| th | 0.287 +/- 0.027 | 15 | 0.117 +/- 0.056 | 20 | -0.017 +/- 0.006 | -0.029 +/- 0.013 |
- δ0: initial δ
- δ1: δ prior to lockdown
- d2: fitted day of lockdown transition (actual date: 22)
- mean value= 22.6, RMS= 2.4
- δ3: δ after relaxation on May 22
Infection status
The following plots summarize the infection history. The upper plot shows the daily growth/decline from the fit. Bands show approximate 95% CL intervals. The lower plot shows the size of the infection: the uncorrected circulating contagious population per million.
Baden-Warttemberg
Bavaria
Berlin
Brandenburg
Hamburg
Hesse
Lower Saxony
North Rhine-Westphalia
Rhineland-Palatinate
Saarland
Saxony
Schleswig-Holstein
Thuringia
