February 21, 2021 Analysis of USA state data

Individual state histories

The plots below show the case / hospitalization / deaths data for all 50 states, DC, and PR. The data fits were done using data up until February 20, 2021.

The green points are the daily cases, the grey points the daily hospitalizations, and indigo points are the daily deaths (each averaged over a week). The case data are used to define the periods for which transmission rate appears to be constant. The vertical lines show where the transmission rate is changed. In absence of immunity, constant transmission rates lead to steady exponential growth or decline during, which appear as straight lines on these log-scale plots. The curves are the model expectations for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, as determined from the case data.

Below the set of individual state plots, summary plots are provided that indicate the degree that natural and vaccination immunization is helping to bring down infections.

Alaska

ak

Alabama

al

Arkansas

ar

Arizona

az

California

ca

Colorado

co

Connecticut

ct

District Of Columbia

dc

Delaware

de

Florida

fl

Georgia

ga

Hawaii

hi

Iowa

ia

Idaho

id

Illinois

il

Indiana

in

Kansas

ks

Kentucky

ky

Louisiana

la

Massachusetts

ma

Maryland

md

Maine

me

Michigan

mi

Minnesota

mn

Missouri

mo

Mississippi

ms

Montana

mt

North Carolina

nc

North Dakota

nd

Nebraska

ne

New Hampshire

nh

New Jersey

nj

New Mexico

nm

Nevada

nv

New York

ny

Ohio

oh

Oklahoma

ok

Oregon

or

Pennsylvania

pa

Puerto Rico

pr

Rhode Island

ri

South Carolina

sc

South Dakota

sd

Tennessee

tn

Texas

tx

Utah

ut

Virginia

va

Vermont

vt

Washington

wa

Wisconsin

wi

West Virginia

wv

Wyoming

wy

Summary of growth rates (with and without immunity)

The following plots summarize the infection history. The upper plot shows the daily growth/decline of infections (% per day). The dashed curve are the growths that would have been experienced in absense of immunity. Natural immunity built up during the course of the epidemic has helped reduce infections and this is now being overtaken by vaccine immunity in many of the states.

The lower plot shows an estimate of the contagious fraction of the population as a function of time.

Alabama

al

Alaska

ak

Arkansas

ar

Arizona

az

California

ca

Colorado

co

Connecticut

ct

District Of Columbia

dc

Delaware

de

Florida

fl

Georgia

ga

Hawaii

hi

Iowa

ia

Idaho

id

Illinois

il

Indiana

in

Kansas

ks

Kentucky

ky

Louisiana

la

Massachusetts

ma

Maryland

md

Maine

me

Michigan

mi

Minnesota

mn

Missouri

mo

Mississippi

ms

Montana

mt

North Carolina

nc

North Dakota

nd

Nebraska

ne

New Hampshire

nh

New Jersey

nj

New Mexico

nm

Nevada

nv

New York

ny

Ohio

oh

Oklahoma

ok

Oregon

or

Pennsylvania

pa

Puerto Rico

pr

Rhode Island

ri

South Carolina

sc

South Dakota

sd

Tennessee

tn

Texas

tx

Utah

ut

Vermont

vt

Virginia

va

Washington

wa

Wisconsin

wi

West Virginia

wv

Wyoming

wy

return to case studies