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November 15, 2020 Analysis of USA state data

Summary: Cases

usa

The histogram shows the daily cases for the 50 states, DC and PR. The curve labelled “forecast (no change)” shows the expected daily cases by adding the expectations from all of the individual state models fit to the state data, as shown below.

Summary: Deaths

usa

This plot uses the same convention as the previous one: this time for daily deaths.

Individual state fits

The plots below show the case / hospitalization / deaths data for all 50 states, DC, and PR. The infection trajectory is determined by fits to the cumulative case data. The data fits were done using data up until November 14.

The left figures show the daily cases on a linear scale. The green points are the case data, the stars show the weekly average, and the green curve is the fit of the model to the case data. The right figures show the cumulative cases and other indicators on a linear scale. Note that the recent rapid growth in the in-hospital numbers follows the trajectory determined from the case data, indicating that the case data is a useful predictor for the infection trajectory.

Alaska

ak

Alabama

al

Arkansas

ar

Arizona

az

California

ca

Colorado

co

Connecticut

ct

District Of Columbia

dc

Delaware

de

Florida

fl

Georgia

ga

Hawaii

hi

Iowa

ia

Idaho

id

Illinois

il

Indiana

in

Kansas

ks

Kentucky

ky

Louisiana

la

Massachusetts

ma

Maryland

md

Maine

me

Michigan

mi

Minnesota

mn

Missouri

mo

Mississippi

ms

Montana

mt

North Carolina

nc

North Dakota

nd

Nebraska

ne

New Hampshire

nh

New Jersey

nj

New Mexico

nm

Nevada

nv

New York

ny

Ohio

oh

Oklahoma

ok

Oregon

or

Pennsylvania

pa

Puerto Rico

pr

Rhode Island

ri

South Carolina

sc

South Dakota

sd

Tennessee

tn

Texas

tx

Utah

ut

Virginia

va

Vermont

vt

Washington

wa

Wisconsin

wi

West Virginia

wv

Wyoming

wy

Tables

The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.3. These are shown for purposes of comparison.

Daily fractional growth rates (δ)

state δ0 day 1 δ1 day 2 δ2 day 3 δ3 day 4 δ4        
AK 11.4 +/- 2.3 27 -4.4 +/- 3.2 84 4.1 +/- 0.6 142 -0.9 +/- 0.8 189 3.9 +/- 0.5        
AL 11.3 +/- 0.9 32 1.6 +/- 0.3 84 3.1 +/- 0.1 136 -0.9 +/- 0.1 195 2.0 +/- 0.2        
AR 6.1 +/- 1.2 50 -12.9 +/- 4.5 60 7.8 +/- 0.6 85 1.8 +/- 0.1 145 -2.5 +/- 0.5 161 1.3 +/- 0.1 230 2.8 +/- 0.3
AZ 10.0 +/- 0.6 26 2.5 +/- 0.2 84 6.9 +/- 0.2 113 -0.9 +/- 0.1 141 -4.1 +/- 0.2 191 4.4 +/- 0.2    
CA 19.7 +/- 1.0 27 1.0 +/- 0.1 84 3.4 +/- 0.0 131 -1.2 +/- 0.0 215 3.2 +/- 0.1        
CO 17.2 +/- 1.3 24 0.5 +/- 0.3 44 -2.6 +/- 0.4 74 -0.7 +/- 0.2 114 5.1 +/- 0.4 135 -1.3 +/- 0.3 208 5.5 +/- 0.1
CT 25.6 +/- 1.9 24 5.6 +/- 0.5 38 -2.2 +/- 0.2 83 -4.6 +/- 0.5 111 1.1 +/- 0.3 201 5.0 +/- 0.2    
DC 18.1 +/- 0.8 27 1.8 +/- 0.8 50 -1.8 +/- 0.5 80 -3.3 +/- 0.5 113 3.3 +/- 1.1 140 -0.3 +/- 0.3 216 3.8 +/- 1.0
FL 21.2 +/- 1.6 25 -1.3 +/- 0.2 63 0.9 +/- 0.3 84 7.1 +/- 0.1 126 -2.0 +/- 0.0 185 -0.3 +/- 0.2 210 3.0 +/- 0.4
GA 20.2 +/- 1.7 27 -0.4 +/- 0.1 89 5.0 +/- 0.2 131 -1.0 +/- 0.1 216 2.7 +/- 0.3        
HI 15.3 +/- 3.2 26 -9.6 +/- 2.4 85 -0.5 +/- 2.2 115 8.0 +/- 0.4 158 -3.7 +/- 0.4 195 -0.2 +/- 0.7    
IA 23.8 +/- 0.9 22 7.0 +/- 0.4 55 -1.5 +/- 0.2 92 2.0 +/- 0.2 126 0.4 +/- 0.2 152 1.4 +/- 0.2 225 7.1 +/- 0.2
ID 25.7 +/- 1.0 24 -5.5 +/- 0.5 49 1.1 +/- 0.4 96 9.5 +/- 0.7 125 -0.7 +/- 0.1 191 3.3 +/- 0.2    
IL 17.5 +/- 1.1 26 3.0 +/- 0.1 60 -0.8 +/- 0.2 76 -4.7 +/- 0.2 100 2.1 +/- 0.1 170 -0.1 +/- 0.2 209 5.3 +/- 0.3
IN 23.9 +/- 2.1 25 1.0 +/- 0.2 55 -1.3 +/- 0.2 108 4.1 +/- 0.3 134 0.5 +/- 0.2 207 4.4 +/- 0.3    
KS 17.2 +/- 1.3 25 2.9 +/- 1.0 41 -0.4 +/- 0.6 81 4.6 +/- 0.4 115 1.1 +/- 0.1 225 5.3 +/- 0.8    
KY 23.5 +/- 2.1 22 5.7 +/- 1.6 40 0.3 +/- 0.2 109 4.4 +/- 0.3 140 -0.9 +/- 0.2 190 2.6 +/- 0.3    
LA 26.0 +/- 1.5 26 -4.3 +/- 0.3 50 1.1 +/- 0.2 88 6.2 +/- 0.2 135 -1.5 +/- 0.1 170 0.5 +/- 0.3 201 3.0 +/- 0.4
MA 16.3 +/- 1.4 28 3.1 +/- 0.4 46 -3.5 +/- 0.2 84 -7.2 +/- 0.9 100 1.4 +/- 0.1 220 5.4 +/- 0.2    
MD 13.4 +/- 0.6 34 1.4 +/- 0.1 74 -2.6 +/- 0.3 116 4.8 +/- 0.5 140 -1.3 +/- 0.2 206 2.3 +/- 0.2 238 5.9 +/- 0.7
ME 22.1 +/- 7.3 16 1.1 +/- 0.5 84 -1.3 +/- 0.3 143 1.0 +/- 0.4 230 8.7 +/- 0.9        
MI 24.1 +/- 0.3 24 -1.5 +/- 0.1 60 -2.6 +/- 0.2 102 4.2 +/- 0.4 128 0.6 +/- 0.1 210 5.4 +/- 0.2    
MN 5.0 +/- 2.8 47 1.5 +/- 0.4 76 -3.2 +/- 0.2 103 3.7 +/- 0.7 123 0.7 +/- 0.1 210 5.0 +/- 0.1    
MO 21.2 +/- 3.1 25 -0.3 +/- 0.2 94 4.1 +/- 0.2 142 0.7 +/- 0.1 223 4.4 +/- 0.2        
MS 17.6 +/- 1.2 34 -0.1 +/- 0.3 80 3.1 +/- 0.3 140 -1.3 +/- 0.3 193 2.0 +/- 0.3        
MT 21.5 +/- 2.4 23 -8.6 +/- 5.5 37 -7.0 +/- 1.9 91 9.2 +/- 1.4 127 0.6 +/- 0.4 190 2.5 +/- 0.2    
NC 17.6 +/- 1.1 24 2.3 +/- 0.1 126 -0.3 +/- 0.1 224 1.5 +/- 0.3            
ND 21.8 +/- 14.9 22 -3.5 +/- 0.7 84 0.3 +/- 0.7 150 2.7 +/- 0.1 220 4.4 +/- 0.1        
NE 18.1 +/- 3.2 25 9.6 +/- 0.5 53 -1.8 +/- 0.2 106 1.5 +/- 0.2 215 4.9 +/- 0.5        
NH 12.9 +/- 2.0 28 1.4 +/- 0.6 70 -2.5 +/- 0.2 172 3.0 +/- 0.5 238 7.0 +/- 2.1        
NJ 22.3 +/- 0.6 25 -0.2 +/- 0.2 49 -3.7 +/- 0.1 108 1.1 +/- 0.2 212 5.2 +/- 0.3        
NM 15.0 +/- 1.9 30 2.7 +/- 0.6 59 -0.5 +/- 0.4 103 3.9 +/- 0.6 131 -2.2 +/- 0.2 183 4.6 +/- 0.3    
NV 26.0 +/- 4.8 21 -0.4 +/- 0.4 81 5.0 +/- 0.3 133 -1.7 +/- 0.1 198 3.5 +/- 0.8        
NY 24.3 +/- 0.9 20 1.6 +/- 0.2 36 -3.8 +/- 0.1 84 -1.8 +/- 0.2 110 0.6 +/- 0.1 194 2.9 +/- 0.1 238 6.0 +/- 0.4
OH 26.1 +/- 1.9 23 -0.6 +/- 0.2 101 5.2 +/- 0.5 122 -0.0 +/- 0.1 210 4.8 +/- 0.3        
OK 23.2 +/- 3.0 24 -0.2 +/- 0.1 88 6.5 +/- 0.7 111 3.5 +/- 0.2 139 -1.5 +/- 0.4 158 1.2 +/- 0.1 238 4.9 +/- 0.5
OR 12.0 +/- 2.5 25 -0.2 +/- 0.4 81 4.1 +/- 0.5 128 -0.7 +/- 0.1 190 1.9 +/- 0.3 237 6.2 +/- 0.8    
PA 36.6 +/- 1.3 22 11.9 +/- 0.5 32 -1.6 +/- 0.1 97 1.1 +/- 0.2 133 0.7 +/- 0.1 219 5.2 +/- 0.2    
PR 19.5 +/- 4.6 23 -0.2 +/- 1.2 100 6.1 +/- 1.5 154 -2.6 +/- 0.3 215 2.3 +/- 0.2        
RI 15.4 +/- 0.9 34 3.7 +/- 3.5 48 -2.7 +/- 0.3 84 -4.2 +/- 1.3 100 0.9 +/- 0.3 202 4.6 +/- 0.3    
SC 27.0 +/- 1.8 22 -0.7 +/- 0.5 66 5.0 +/- 0.2 124 -1.5 +/- 0.1 170 0.8 +/- 0.1        
SD 17.1 +/- 3.8 38 -5.2 +/- 4.7 49 -0.4 +/- 0.3 120 2.2 +/- 0.2 205 3.9 +/- 0.2        
TN 20.3 +/- 3.7 22 0.3 +/- 0.3 76 3.4 +/- 0.1 137 -0.8 +/- 0.2 215 4.1 +/- 0.2        
TX 13.9 +/- 2.1 29 1.1 +/- 0.1 88 5.7 +/- 0.1 126 -1.1 +/- 0.0 202 2.6 +/- 0.3        
UT 14.9 +/- 1.7 25 1.0 +/- 0.2 73 3.1 +/- 0.2 122 -1.1 +/- 0.2 169 1.7 +/- 0.2 230 4.5 +/- 0.4    
VA 20.4 +/- 1.8 27 3.8 +/- 0.2 56 0.4 +/- 0.6 70 -1.2 +/- 0.1 110 3.2 +/- 0.1 138 0.0 +/- 0.1 208 1.6 +/- 0.5
VT 17.4 +/- 2.8 25 -7.0 +/- 2.6 62 1.1 +/- 3.3 131 0.4 +/- 2.0 228 9.7 +/- 4.1        
WA 16.4 +/- 0.8 20 -2.1 +/- 0.3 64 2.2 +/- 0.2 140 -1.3 +/- 0.3 192 1.6 +/- 0.2 238 7.1 +/- 0.7    
WI 15.9 +/- 1.2 24 -0.6 +/- 0.2 108 4.1 +/- 0.6 135 -0.2 +/- 0.3 178 4.3 +/- 0.4 210 3.1 +/- 0.1    
WV 20.6 +/- 2.2 25 -2.2 +/- 0.9 84 6.0 +/- 3.3 123 0.3 +/- 0.2 212 3.4 +/- 0.6        
WY 18.1 +/- 3.5 23 -0.4 +/- 1.2 51 0.6 +/- 1.1 84 2.8 +/- 0.8 126 0.6 +/- 0.5 190 4.7 +/- 0.4    

Infection status

The following plots summarize the infection history. The upper plot shows the daily growth/decline from the fit. Bands show approximate 95% CL intervals. The lower plot shows the size of the infection: the uncorrected circulating contagious population per million.

Alabama

al

Alaska

ak

Arkansas

ar

Arizona

az

California

ca

Colorado

co

Connecticut

ct

District Of Columbia

dc

Delaware

de

Florida

fl

Georgia

ga

Hawaii

hi

Iowa

ia

Idaho

id

Illinois

il

Indiana

in

Kansas

ks

Kentucky

ky

Louisiana

la

Massachusetts

ma

Maryland

md

Maine

me

Michigan

mi

Minnesota

mn

Missouri

mo

Mississippi

ms

Montana

mt

North Carolina

nc

North Dakota

nd

Nebraska

ne

New Hampshire

nh

New Jersey

nj

New Mexico

nm

Nevada

nv

New York

ny

Ohio

oh

Oklahoma

ok

Oregon

or

Pennsylvania

pa

Puerto Rico

pr

Rhode Island

ri

South Carolina

sc

South Dakota

sd

Tennessee

tn

Texas

tx

Utah

ut

Vermont

vt

Virginia

va

Washington

wa

Wisconsin

wi

West Virginia

wv

Wyoming

wy

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