November 15, 2020 Analysis of USA state data

Summary: Cases

usa

The histogram shows the daily cases for the 50 states, DC and PR. The curve labelled “forecast (no change)” shows the expected daily cases by adding the expectations from all of the individual state models fit to the state data, as shown below.

Summary: Deaths

usa

This plot uses the same convention as the previous one: this time for daily deaths.

Individual state fits

The plots below show the case / hospitalization / deaths data for all 50 states, DC, and PR. The infection trajectory is determined by fits to the cumulative case data. The data fits were done using data up until November 14.

The left figures show the daily cases on a linear scale. The green points are the case data, the stars show the weekly average, and the green curve is the fit of the model to the case data. The right figures show the cumulative cases and other indicators on a linear scale. Note that the recent rapid growth in the in-hospital numbers follows the trajectory determined from the case data, indicating that the case data is a useful predictor for the infection trajectory.

Alaska

Alabama

Arkansas

Arizona

California

Colorado

Connecticut

District Of Columbia

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Iowa

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Massachusetts

Maryland

Maine

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

Mississippi

Montana

North Carolina

North Dakota

Nebraska

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

Nevada

New York

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Puerto Rico

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Virginia

Vermont

Washington

Wisconsin

West Virginia

Wyoming

Tables

The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.3. These are shown for purposes of comparison.

Daily fractional growth rates (δ)

state	δ₀	day 1	δ₁	day 2	δ₂	day 3	δ₃	day 4	δ₄
AK	11.4 +/- 2.3	27	-4.4 +/- 3.2	84	4.1 +/- 0.6	142	-0.9 +/- 0.8	189	3.9 +/- 0.5
AL	11.3 +/- 0.9	32	1.6 +/- 0.3	84	3.1 +/- 0.1	136	-0.9 +/- 0.1	195	2.0 +/- 0.2
AR	6.1 +/- 1.2	50	-12.9 +/- 4.5	60	7.8 +/- 0.6	85	1.8 +/- 0.1	145	-2.5 +/- 0.5	161	1.3 +/- 0.1	230	2.8 +/- 0.3
AZ	10.0 +/- 0.6	26	2.5 +/- 0.2	84	6.9 +/- 0.2	113	-0.9 +/- 0.1	141	-4.1 +/- 0.2	191	4.4 +/- 0.2
CA	19.7 +/- 1.0	27	1.0 +/- 0.1	84	3.4 +/- 0.0	131	-1.2 +/- 0.0	215	3.2 +/- 0.1
CO	17.2 +/- 1.3	24	0.5 +/- 0.3	44	-2.6 +/- 0.4	74	-0.7 +/- 0.2	114	5.1 +/- 0.4	135	-1.3 +/- 0.3	208	5.5 +/- 0.1
CT	25.6 +/- 1.9	24	5.6 +/- 0.5	38	-2.2 +/- 0.2	83	-4.6 +/- 0.5	111	1.1 +/- 0.3	201	5.0 +/- 0.2
DC	18.1 +/- 0.8	27	1.8 +/- 0.8	50	-1.8 +/- 0.5	80	-3.3 +/- 0.5	113	3.3 +/- 1.1	140	-0.3 +/- 0.3	216	3.8 +/- 1.0
FL	21.2 +/- 1.6	25	-1.3 +/- 0.2	63	0.9 +/- 0.3	84	7.1 +/- 0.1	126	-2.0 +/- 0.0	185	-0.3 +/- 0.2	210	3.0 +/- 0.4
GA	20.2 +/- 1.7	27	-0.4 +/- 0.1	89	5.0 +/- 0.2	131	-1.0 +/- 0.1	216	2.7 +/- 0.3
HI	15.3 +/- 3.2	26	-9.6 +/- 2.4	85	-0.5 +/- 2.2	115	8.0 +/- 0.4	158	-3.7 +/- 0.4	195	-0.2 +/- 0.7
IA	23.8 +/- 0.9	22	7.0 +/- 0.4	55	-1.5 +/- 0.2	92	2.0 +/- 0.2	126	0.4 +/- 0.2	152	1.4 +/- 0.2	225	7.1 +/- 0.2
ID	25.7 +/- 1.0	24	-5.5 +/- 0.5	49	1.1 +/- 0.4	96	9.5 +/- 0.7	125	-0.7 +/- 0.1	191	3.3 +/- 0.2
IL	17.5 +/- 1.1	26	3.0 +/- 0.1	60	-0.8 +/- 0.2	76	-4.7 +/- 0.2	100	2.1 +/- 0.1	170	-0.1 +/- 0.2	209	5.3 +/- 0.3
IN	23.9 +/- 2.1	25	1.0 +/- 0.2	55	-1.3 +/- 0.2	108	4.1 +/- 0.3	134	0.5 +/- 0.2	207	4.4 +/- 0.3
KS	17.2 +/- 1.3	25	2.9 +/- 1.0	41	-0.4 +/- 0.6	81	4.6 +/- 0.4	115	1.1 +/- 0.1	225	5.3 +/- 0.8
KY	23.5 +/- 2.1	22	5.7 +/- 1.6	40	0.3 +/- 0.2	109	4.4 +/- 0.3	140	-0.9 +/- 0.2	190	2.6 +/- 0.3
LA	26.0 +/- 1.5	26	-4.3 +/- 0.3	50	1.1 +/- 0.2	88	6.2 +/- 0.2	135	-1.5 +/- 0.1	170	0.5 +/- 0.3	201	3.0 +/- 0.4
MA	16.3 +/- 1.4	28	3.1 +/- 0.4	46	-3.5 +/- 0.2	84	-7.2 +/- 0.9	100	1.4 +/- 0.1	220	5.4 +/- 0.2
MD	13.4 +/- 0.6	34	1.4 +/- 0.1	74	-2.6 +/- 0.3	116	4.8 +/- 0.5	140	-1.3 +/- 0.2	206	2.3 +/- 0.2	238	5.9 +/- 0.7
ME	22.1 +/- 7.3	16	1.1 +/- 0.5	84	-1.3 +/- 0.3	143	1.0 +/- 0.4	230	8.7 +/- 0.9
MI	24.1 +/- 0.3	24	-1.5 +/- 0.1	60	-2.6 +/- 0.2	102	4.2 +/- 0.4	128	0.6 +/- 0.1	210	5.4 +/- 0.2
MN	5.0 +/- 2.8	47	1.5 +/- 0.4	76	-3.2 +/- 0.2	103	3.7 +/- 0.7	123	0.7 +/- 0.1	210	5.0 +/- 0.1
MO	21.2 +/- 3.1	25	-0.3 +/- 0.2	94	4.1 +/- 0.2	142	0.7 +/- 0.1	223	4.4 +/- 0.2
MS	17.6 +/- 1.2	34	-0.1 +/- 0.3	80	3.1 +/- 0.3	140	-1.3 +/- 0.3	193	2.0 +/- 0.3
MT	21.5 +/- 2.4	23	-8.6 +/- 5.5	37	-7.0 +/- 1.9	91	9.2 +/- 1.4	127	0.6 +/- 0.4	190	2.5 +/- 0.2
NC	17.6 +/- 1.1	24	2.3 +/- 0.1	126	-0.3 +/- 0.1	224	1.5 +/- 0.3
ND	21.8 +/- 14.9	22	-3.5 +/- 0.7	84	0.3 +/- 0.7	150	2.7 +/- 0.1	220	4.4 +/- 0.1
NE	18.1 +/- 3.2	25	9.6 +/- 0.5	53	-1.8 +/- 0.2	106	1.5 +/- 0.2	215	4.9 +/- 0.5
NH	12.9 +/- 2.0	28	1.4 +/- 0.6	70	-2.5 +/- 0.2	172	3.0 +/- 0.5	238	7.0 +/- 2.1
NJ	22.3 +/- 0.6	25	-0.2 +/- 0.2	49	-3.7 +/- 0.1	108	1.1 +/- 0.2	212	5.2 +/- 0.3
NM	15.0 +/- 1.9	30	2.7 +/- 0.6	59	-0.5 +/- 0.4	103	3.9 +/- 0.6	131	-2.2 +/- 0.2	183	4.6 +/- 0.3
NV	26.0 +/- 4.8	21	-0.4 +/- 0.4	81	5.0 +/- 0.3	133	-1.7 +/- 0.1	198	3.5 +/- 0.8
NY	24.3 +/- 0.9	20	1.6 +/- 0.2	36	-3.8 +/- 0.1	84	-1.8 +/- 0.2	110	0.6 +/- 0.1	194	2.9 +/- 0.1	238	6.0 +/- 0.4
OH	26.1 +/- 1.9	23	-0.6 +/- 0.2	101	5.2 +/- 0.5	122	-0.0 +/- 0.1	210	4.8 +/- 0.3
OK	23.2 +/- 3.0	24	-0.2 +/- 0.1	88	6.5 +/- 0.7	111	3.5 +/- 0.2	139	-1.5 +/- 0.4	158	1.2 +/- 0.1	238	4.9 +/- 0.5
OR	12.0 +/- 2.5	25	-0.2 +/- 0.4	81	4.1 +/- 0.5	128	-0.7 +/- 0.1	190	1.9 +/- 0.3	237	6.2 +/- 0.8
PA	36.6 +/- 1.3	22	11.9 +/- 0.5	32	-1.6 +/- 0.1	97	1.1 +/- 0.2	133	0.7 +/- 0.1	219	5.2 +/- 0.2
PR	19.5 +/- 4.6	23	-0.2 +/- 1.2	100	6.1 +/- 1.5	154	-2.6 +/- 0.3	215	2.3 +/- 0.2
RI	15.4 +/- 0.9	34	3.7 +/- 3.5	48	-2.7 +/- 0.3	84	-4.2 +/- 1.3	100	0.9 +/- 0.3	202	4.6 +/- 0.3
SC	27.0 +/- 1.8	22	-0.7 +/- 0.5	66	5.0 +/- 0.2	124	-1.5 +/- 0.1	170	0.8 +/- 0.1
SD	17.1 +/- 3.8	38	-5.2 +/- 4.7	49	-0.4 +/- 0.3	120	2.2 +/- 0.2	205	3.9 +/- 0.2
TN	20.3 +/- 3.7	22	0.3 +/- 0.3	76	3.4 +/- 0.1	137	-0.8 +/- 0.2	215	4.1 +/- 0.2
TX	13.9 +/- 2.1	29	1.1 +/- 0.1	88	5.7 +/- 0.1	126	-1.1 +/- 0.0	202	2.6 +/- 0.3
UT	14.9 +/- 1.7	25	1.0 +/- 0.2	73	3.1 +/- 0.2	122	-1.1 +/- 0.2	169	1.7 +/- 0.2	230	4.5 +/- 0.4
VA	20.4 +/- 1.8	27	3.8 +/- 0.2	56	0.4 +/- 0.6	70	-1.2 +/- 0.1	110	3.2 +/- 0.1	138	0.0 +/- 0.1	208	1.6 +/- 0.5
VT	17.4 +/- 2.8	25	-7.0 +/- 2.6	62	1.1 +/- 3.3	131	0.4 +/- 2.0	228	9.7 +/- 4.1
WA	16.4 +/- 0.8	20	-2.1 +/- 0.3	64	2.2 +/- 0.2	140	-1.3 +/- 0.3	192	1.6 +/- 0.2	238	7.1 +/- 0.7
WI	15.9 +/- 1.2	24	-0.6 +/- 0.2	108	4.1 +/- 0.6	135	-0.2 +/- 0.3	178	4.3 +/- 0.4	210	3.1 +/- 0.1
WV	20.6 +/- 2.2	25	-2.2 +/- 0.9	84	6.0 +/- 3.3	123	0.3 +/- 0.2	212	3.4 +/- 0.6
WY	18.1 +/- 3.5	23	-0.4 +/- 1.2	51	0.6 +/- 1.1	84	2.8 +/- 0.8	126	0.6 +/- 0.5	190	4.7 +/- 0.4

δ₀: initial daily fractional growth parameter (in percent)
day 1: days after March 1, 2020 when transmission rate changed
transition day 84 (May 23) was forced in some cases: used to estimate growth following Memorial day weekend

Infection status

The following plots summarize the infection history. The upper plot shows the daily growth/decline from the fit. Bands show approximate 95% CL intervals. The lower plot shows the size of the infection: the uncorrected circulating contagious population per million.