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July 8, 2020 Analysis of USA state data

Summary

usa

The histogram shows the daily cases for the 50 states and DC. The curve labelled “no change” shows the expected daily cases by adding the expectations from all of the individual state models fit to the state data, as shown below. Also shown are projections, if measures are taken to reduce transmission rates, back to April 15 or May 15 levels, with the public policy change being made on July 22 or August 1. Model fits use data March 1 - July 19.

Individual state fits

The plots below show the case / hospitalization / deaths data for all 50 states and DC. The infection trajectory is determined by fits to the cumulative case data. For most states, case data can be well described by a constant transmission rate since Memorial day weekend (day 84).

The red curves (contagious population) is the inferred contagious population. Its shape is determined from the case data. Its scale is not well known.

The data fits were done using data up until July 7.

Alaska

ak

Alabama

al

Arkansas

ar

Arizona

az

California

ca

Colorado

co

Connecticut

ct

District Of Columbia

dc

Delaware

de

Florida

fl

Georgia

ga

Hawaii

hi

Iowa

ia

Idaho

id

Illinois

il

Indiana

in

Kansas

ks

Kentucky

ky

Louisiana

la

Massachusetts

ma

Maryland

md

Maine

me

Michigan

mi

Minnesota

mn

Missouri

mo

Mississippi

ms

Montana

mt

North Carolina

nc

North Dakota

nd

Nebraska

ne

New Hampshire

nh

New Jersey

nj

New Mexico

nm

Nevada

nv

New York

ny

Ohio

oh

Oklahoma

ok

Oregon

or

Pennsylvania

pa

Rhode Island

ri

South Carolina

sc

South Dakota

sd

Tennessee

tn

Texas

tx

Utah

ut

Virginia

va

Vermont

vt

Washington

wa

Wisconsin

wi

West Virginia

wv

Wyoming

wy

Tables

The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.3. These are shown for purposes of comparison.

Daily fractional growth rates (δ)

state δ0 day 1 δ1 day 2 δ2 day 3 δ3 day 4 δ4
AL 0.102 +/- 0.009 32 0.007 +/- 0.002 84 0.030 +/- 0.002        
AR 0.090 +/- 0.010 34 -0.041 +/- 0.014 84 0.028 +/- 0.003        
AZ 0.051 +/- 0.008 26 0.034 +/- 0.002 84 0.056 +/- 0.003        
CA 0.172 +/- 0.011 27 0.010 +/- 0.001 84 0.035 +/- 0.001        
CO 0.151 +/- 0.014 24 0.011 +/- 0.006 44 -0.020 +/- 0.004 74 -0.021 +/- 0.006 84 -0.004 +/- 0.004
CT 0.254 +/- 0.019 24 0.056 +/- 0.005 38 -0.021 +/- 0.001 84 -0.053 +/- 0.004    
DC 0.185 +/- 0.019 27 0.016 +/- 0.006 50 -0.020 +/- 0.002 84 -0.035 +/- 0.002    
DE 0.205 +/- 0.012 29 0.033 +/- 0.004 49 -0.001 +/- 0.003 71 -0.044 +/- 0.008 99 0.053 +/- 0.008
FL 0.217 +/- 0.015 25 -0.014 +/- 0.002 63 0.006 +/- 0.003 84 0.077 +/- 0.002    
GA 0.228 +/- 0.015 27 -0.006 +/- 0.001 84 0.043 +/- 0.002        
HI 0.159 +/- 0.021 26 -0.074 +/- 0.015 84 0.048 +/- 0.015        
IA 0.232 +/- 0.009 22 0.069 +/- 0.004 55 -0.019 +/- 0.001 84 0.010 +/- 0.002    
ID 0.259 +/- 0.018 24 -0.044 +/- 0.008 49 -0.008 +/- 0.007 84 0.080 +/- 0.004    
IL 0.162 +/- 0.010 26 0.032 +/- 0.002 60 -0.016 +/- 0.001 84 -0.077 +/- 0.004 95 0.006 +/- 0.003
IN 0.230 +/- 0.022 25 0.011 +/- 0.002 55 -0.014 +/- 0.002 84 -0.003 +/- 0.003    
KS 0.154 +/- 0.020 25 0.035 +/- 0.016 41 -0.000 +/- 0.008 84 0.035 +/- 0.008    
KY 0.235 +/- 0.021 22 0.058 +/- 0.007 40 0.004 +/- 0.003 84 0.007 +/- 0.004    
LA 0.267 +/- 0.013 26 -0.047 +/- 0.004 50 0.013 +/- 0.004 84 0.052 +/- 0.003    
MA 0.159 +/- 0.014 28 0.033 +/- 0.004 46 -0.028 +/- 0.002 84 -0.045 +/- 0.002    
MD 0.131 +/- 0.006 34 0.015 +/- 0.001 74 -0.027 +/- 0.002 110 0.003 +/- 0.016    
ME 0.221 +/- 0.073 16 0.011 +/- 0.005 84 -0.012 +/- 0.005        
MI 0.112 +/- 0.005 20 -0.012 +/- 0.001 71 -0.054 +/- 0.005 94 0.044 +/- 0.005    
MN 0.101 +/- 0.016 19 0.053 +/- 0.006 47 0.014 +/- 0.002 76 -0.052 +/- 0.003 95 0.025 +/- 0.003
MO 0.207 +/- 0.032 25 -0.006 +/- 0.004 84 0.032 +/- 0.003        
MS 0.118 +/- 0.008 34 0.004 +/- 0.004 84 0.027 +/- 0.002        
MT 0.179 +/- 0.033 23 -0.054 +/- 0.020 37 -0.097 +/- 0.045 84 0.080 +/- 0.013    
NC 0.122 +/- 0.017 24 0.027 +/- 0.001 84 0.021 +/- 0.001        
ND 0.289 +/- 0.108 22 -0.040 +/- 0.004 84 0.001 +/- 0.004        
NE 0.196 +/- 0.024 25 0.094 +/- 0.034 53 -0.015 +/- 0.005 84 -0.016 +/- 0.004    
NH 0.168 +/- 0.029 28 0.007 +/- 0.010 84 -0.044 +/- 0.020        
NJ 0.217 +/- 0.006 25 -0.001 +/- 0.001 49 -0.038 +/- 0.001 84 -0.025 +/- 0.002    
NM 0.153 +/- 0.024 30 0.025 +/- 0.009 59 -0.010 +/- 0.005 84 0.011 +/- 0.005    
NV 0.318 +/- 0.042 21 -0.004 +/- 0.004 84 0.060 +/- 0.003        
NY 0.243 +/- 0.008 20 0.020 +/- 0.002 36 -0.039 +/- 0.000 84 -0.016 +/- 0.002    
OH 0.267 +/- 0.031 23 -0.005 +/- 0.008 50 -0.011 +/- 0.002 84 0.019 +/- 0.002    
OK 0.226 +/- 0.039 24 -0.002 +/- 0.003 84 0.053 +/- 0.003        
OR 0.096 +/- 0.022 25 0.000 +/- 0.006 84 0.048 +/- 0.003        
PA 0.343 +/- 0.017 22 0.088 +/- 0.012 32 -0.014 +/- 0.001 84 -0.042 +/- 0.005 98 0.030 +/- 0.004
RI 0.170 +/- 0.008 34 0.028 +/- 0.009 48 -0.024 +/- 0.005 84 -0.039 +/- 0.009    
SC 0.266 +/- 0.031 22 0.012 +/- 0.002 84 0.060 +/- 0.002        
SD 0.175 +/- 0.022 38 -0.063 +/- 0.025 49 0.001 +/- 0.012 84 -0.005 +/- 0.029    
TN 0.199 +/- 0.038 22 0.008 +/- 0.001 84 0.036 +/- 0.002        
TX 0.149 +/- 0.008 29 0.007 +/- 0.001 84 0.057 +/- 0.001        
UT 0.135 +/- 0.019 25 0.010 +/- 0.005 73 0.031 +/- 0.002        
VA 0.208 +/- 0.011 27 0.037 +/- 0.002 56 0.008 +/- 0.002 84 -0.023 +/- 0.002    
VT 0.142 +/- 0.028 25 -0.067 +/- 0.015 84 0.078 +/- 0.036        
WA 0.098 +/- 0.011 11 -0.005 +/- 0.001 84 0.024 +/- 0.004        
WI 0.208 +/- 0.019 24 -0.027 +/- 0.003 84 0.008 +/- 0.002        
WV 0.216 +/- 0.045 25 -0.021 +/- 0.010 84 0.049 +/- 0.014        
WY 0.179 +/- 0.045 23 -0.031 +/- 0.057 51 -0.026 +/- 0.020 84 0.042 +/- 0.011    

Infection status

The following plots summarize the infection history. The upper plot shows the daily growth/decline from the fit. Bands show approximate 95% CL intervals. The lower plot shows the size of the infection: the uncorrected circulating contagious population per million.

Alabama

al

Arkansas

ar

Arizona

az

California

ca

Colorado

co

Connecticut

ct

District Of Columbia

dc

Delaware

de

Florida

fl

Georgia

ga

Hawaii

hi

Iowa

ia

Idaho

id

Illinois

il

Indiana

in

Kansas

ks

Kentucky

ky

Louisiana

la

Massachusetts

ma

Maryland

md

Maine

me

Michigan

mi

Minnesota

mn

Missouri

mo

Mississippi

ms

Montana

mt

North Carolina

nc

North Dakota

nd

Nebraska

ne

New Hampshire

nh

New Jersey

nj

New Mexico

nm

Nevada

nv

New York

ny

Ohio

oh

Oklahoma

ok

Oregon

or

Pennsylvania

pa

Rhode Island

ri

South Carolina

sc

South Dakota

sd

Tennessee

tn

Texas

tx

Utah

ut

Vermont

vt

Virginia

va

Washington

wa

Wisconsin

wi

West Virginia

wv

Wyoming

wy

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