June 17, 2020 Analysis of USA state data

Below shows the case / hospitalization / deaths data for all 50 states and DC. The infection trajectory is determined by fits to the cumulative case data.

The red curves (contagious population) is the inferred contagious population. Its shape is determined from the case data. Its scale is not well known.

The data fits were done using data up until June 17.

Tables

The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.3. These are shown for purposes of comparison.

Daily fractional growth rates (δ)

state	δ₀	day 1	δ₁	day 2	δ₂	day 3	δ₃	day 4	δ₄
AL	0.104 +/- 0.009	32	0.007 +/- 0.002	84	0.036 +/- 0.005
AR	0.093 +/- 0.011	34	-0.067 +/- 0.010	84	0.055 +/- 0.007
AZ	0.118 +/- 0.025	26	0.022 +/- 0.003	84	0.076 +/- 0.004
CA	0.139 +/- 0.009	27	0.014 +/- 0.001	84	0.019 +/- 0.002
CO	0.158 +/- 0.019	24	0.009 +/- 0.004	44	-0.025 +/- 0.002	74	0.011 +/- 0.012	84	-0.043 +/- 0.009
CT	0.258 +/- 0.031	24	0.055 +/- 0.008	38	-0.020 +/- 0.001	84	-0.068 +/- 0.011
DC	0.180 +/- 0.024	27	0.019 +/- 0.006	50	-0.017 +/- 0.003	84	-0.042 +/- 0.010
DE	0.191 +/- 0.011	29	0.035 +/- 0.004	49	-0.001 +/- 0.007	71	-0.043 +/- 0.005
FL	0.218 +/- 0.012	25	-0.015 +/- 0.001	63	0.011 +/- 0.003	84	0.060 +/- 0.002
GA	0.189 +/- 0.014	27	-0.002 +/- 0.001	84	0.019 +/- 0.004
HI	0.158 +/- 0.023	26	-0.073 +/- 0.009	84	0.115 +/- 0.060
IA	0.226 +/- 0.022	22	0.068 +/- 0.004	55	-0.017 +/- 0.003	84	0.007 +/- 0.008
ID	0.259 +/- 0.010	24	-0.053 +/- 0.003	49	0.008 +/- 0.004	84	0.026 +/- 0.009
IL	0.161 +/- 0.007	26	0.032 +/- 0.002	60	-0.017 +/- 0.002	84	-0.061 +/- 0.004
IN	0.230 +/- 0.016	25	0.011 +/- 0.003	55	-0.013 +/- 0.002	84	-0.007 +/- 0.003
KS	0.155 +/- 0.023	25	0.035 +/- 0.009	41	0.007 +/- 0.003	84	-0.032 +/- 0.011
KY	0.235 +/- 0.011	22	0.058 +/- 0.007	40	0.004 +/- 0.005	84	0.009 +/- 0.011
LA	0.273 +/- 0.016	26	-0.051 +/- 0.003	50	0.020 +/- 0.003	84	0.034 +/- 0.007
MA	0.159 +/- 0.013	28	0.033 +/- 0.003	46	-0.027 +/- 0.001	84	-0.058 +/- 0.011
ME	0.221 +/- 0.072	16	0.012 +/- 0.005	84	-0.022 +/- 0.021
MI	0.121 +/- 0.004	20	-0.015 +/- 0.001	84	-0.095 +/- 0.007
MO	0.207 +/- 0.016	25	-0.005 +/- 0.003	84	0.025 +/- 0.009
MS	0.101 +/- 0.010	34	0.009 +/- 0.002	84	0.003 +/- 0.005
MT	0.178 +/- 0.036	23	-0.052 +/- 0.028	37	-0.106 +/- 0.033	84	0.044 +/- 0.011
NC	0.158 +/- 0.020	24	0.025 +/- 0.003	84	0.035 +/- 0.004
ND	0.260 +/- 0.038	22	0.003 +/- 0.004	84	-0.046 +/- 0.012
NE	0.196 +/- 0.037	25	0.094 +/- 0.021	53	-0.014 +/- 0.004	84	-0.021 +/- 0.009
NH	0.159 +/- 0.049	28	0.008 +/- 0.021	84	-0.065 +/- 0.028
NJ	0.217 +/- 0.007	25	-0.001 +/- 0.001	49	-0.038 +/- 0.001	84	-0.022 +/- 0.006
NM	0.157 +/- 0.041	30	0.024 +/- 0.023	59	-0.007 +/- 0.012	84	0.009 +/- 0.021
NV	0.324 +/- 0.035	21	-0.003 +/- 0.003	84	0.057 +/- 0.011
NY	0.243 +/- 0.010	20	0.020 +/- 0.003	36	-0.039 +/- 0.001	84	-0.014 +/- 0.004
OH	0.277 +/- 0.034	23	-0.032 +/- 0.005	50	-0.001 +/- 0.002	84	-0.025 +/- 0.009
OK	0.227 +/- 0.051	24	-0.002 +/- 0.003	84	0.039 +/- 0.015
OR	0.122 +/- 0.015	25	-0.008 +/- 0.004	84	0.085 +/- 0.006
PA	0.323 +/- 0.019	22	0.090 +/- 0.012	32	-0.014 +/- 0.001	84	-0.039 +/- 0.007
RI	0.172 +/- 0.011	34	0.026 +/- 0.005	48	-0.023 +/- 0.003	84	-0.054 +/- 0.012
SC	0.278 +/- 0.038	22	0.006 +/- 0.002	84	0.090 +/- 0.005
SD	0.174 +/- 0.014	38	-0.064 +/- 0.016	49	0.002 +/- 0.009	84	-0.006 +/- 0.014
TN	0.180 +/- 0.035	22	0.010 +/- 0.002	84	0.028 +/- 0.005
TX	0.143 +/- 0.009	29	0.009 +/- 0.002	84	0.041 +/- 0.003
UT	0.144 +/- 0.022	25	-0.000 +/- 0.005	73	0.038 +/- 0.003
VA	0.212 +/- 0.012	27	0.035 +/- 0.002	56	0.012 +/- 0.003	84	-0.038 +/- 0.004
WA	0.120 +/- 0.009	11	-0.008 +/- 0.002	84	0.029 +/- 0.008
WI	0.125 +/- 0.018	24	0.008 +/- 0.005	84	-0.029 +/- 0.007
WV	0.217 +/- 0.024	25	-0.018 +/- 0.009	84	0.039 +/- 0.050
WY	0.175 +/- 0.035	23	-0.030 +/- 0.013	51	-0.025 +/- 0.018	84	0.030 +/- 0.006

δ₀: initial daily fractional growth parameter
day 1: days after March 1, 2020 when transmission rate changed
transition day 84 (May 23) forced: used to estimate growth following Memorial day weekend

Infection status

The following plots summarize the infection history. The upper plot shows the daily growth/decline from the fit. Bands show approximate 95% CL intervals. The lower plot shows the size of the infection: the uncorrected circulating contagious population per million.