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May 21-25, 2020 Analysis of USA state data

As relaxation is getting underway, it is important to have a good fit to the data prior to the onset of changes due to relaxation.

Below shows the case / hospitalization / deaths data for all 50 states and DC. The infection trajectory is determined by fits to the cumulative case data. Confirmation is seen for most states: hospitalization data follows the same exponential growth/decay as the contagious population.

The red curves (contagious population) is the inferred contagious population. Its shape is determined from the case data. Its scale is not well known.

The data fits were done using data up until May 21. The plots show data up until May 25.

Alaska

ak

Alabama

al

Arkansas

ar

Arizona

az

California

ca

Colorado

co

Connecticut

ct

District Of Columbia

dc

Delaware

de

Florida

fl

Georgia

ga

Hawaii

hi

Iowa

ia

Idaho

id

Illinois

il

Indiana

in

Kansas

ks

Kentucky

ky

Louisiana

la

Massachusetts

ma

Maryland

md

Maine

me

Michigan

mi

Minnesota

mn

Missouri

mo

Mississippi

ms

Montana

mt

North Carolina

nc

North Dakota

nd

Nebraska

ne

New Hampshire

nh

New Jersey

nj

New Mexico

nm

Nevada

nv

New York

ny

Ohio

oh

Oklahoma

ok

Oregon

or

Pennsylvania

pa

Rhode Island

ri

South Carolina

sc

South Dakota

sd

Tennessee

tn

Texas

tx

Utah

ut

Virginia

va

Vermont

vt

Washington

wa

Wisconsin

wi

West Virginia

wv

Wyoming

wy

Tables

The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.1. These are shown for purposes of comparison.

Reproduction numbers

state cont_0 R_0 t_1 R_1 t2 R_2 t3 R_3
AK 6.9 1.86 30 0.62        
AL 33.5 2.26 30 1.09        
AR 39.1 1.75 35 0.59        
AZ 51.9 2.14 27 1.18        
CA 252.4 2.21 30 1.10        
CO 71.4 2.38 27 1.03 44 0.85    
CT 7.8 4.04 25 1.61 38 0.87    
DC 8.8 2.61 30 1.11 50 0.88    
DE 5.1 2.64 32 1.33 49 0.97    
FL 38.8 3.36 27 0.88 63 1.06    
GA 59.4 2.67 30 0.97        
HI 7.2 2.17 29 0.53        
IA 5.9 2.86 24 1.64 55 0.86    
ID 1.6 3.74 27 0.61 49 0.96    
IL 113.3 2.59 28 1.26 60 0.93    
IN 13.5 3.36 27 1.08 55 0.90    
KS 6.5 2.70 27 1.13 41 0.79    
KY 3.2 3.38 24 1.50 40 1.07    
LA 26.3 3.62 28 0.60 50 0.41 60 0.99
MA 100.5 2.70 29 1.33 46 0.83    
MD 36.0 2.52 34 1.12        
ME 17.6 1.93 25 1.03        
MI 770.6 1.83 29 0.88        
MN 15.8 2.44 22 1.41 47 1.17    
MO 20.9 2.72 28 0.95        
MS 43.9 2.01 34 1.09        
MT 3.1 2.58 26 0.67 37 0.36    
NC 28.8 2.58 27 1.17        
ND 4.8 2.17 26 1.04        
NE 2.2 2.72 28 1.67 53 0.90    
NH 10.2 2.28 28 1.13        
NJ 180.7 3.08 27 1.04 49 0.73    
NM 6.5 2.43 32 1.19 59 0.94    
NV 15.9 2.78 26 0.94        
NY 908.8 3.02 23 1.19 36 0.80 52 0.63
OH 6.4 4.17 24 0.97 50 0.95    
OK 27.0 2.16 29 0.99        
OR 22.0 2.31 24 1.00        
PA 9.0 4.47 23 2.30 32 0.91    
RI 8.4 2.59 36 1.29 48 0.84    
SC 19.6 2.65 27 0.99        
SD 1.9 2.60 40 0.73 49 0.71    
TN 30.0 2.84 25 0.98 41 0.82    
TX 77.1 2.49 31 1.06        
UT 21.4 2.45 26 1.08        
VA 18.6 2.77 29 1.33 56 1.07    
VT 14.2 2.01 30 0.52        
WA 508.3 1.80 22 0.88        
WI 58.1 2.11 27 1.00        
WV 2.6 2.64 30 0.88        
WY 4.5 2.11 27 0.75 51 1.30    

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