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June 17, 2020 Analysis of German state data (with updates on June 20)

Data from March 1-June 10 were included in the June 17 analysis. Strick lockdown in Germany started on March 22. The transition date for the transmission rates were not fixed to that date: most fits found the transition to be very close to March 22.

Relaxation of lockdown rules started on May 6. To evaluate the effect on the spread of CoViD-19, a transition is transmission rate was imposed on that date, and the transmission rates before and after were fit.

The results from the 16 German states are remarkably consistent with similar values for δ before and after the imposition of the lockdown rules. There is no significant increase in δ after the relaxation.

Below shows the case and deaths data for all 16 states compares to the pypm model fit to the case data.

The red curves (contagious population) is the inferred contagious population. Its shape is determined from the case data. Its scale is not well known.

Following are tables and figures comparing the different states as well as the infection status plots, that summarize the growth and size of the epidemic. PDF versions of plots are available by clicking on the titles

Update June 20: By including data through June 19, it now appears that Berlin is experiencing exponential growth, transition date: May 23. The state of Saxony-Anhalt has also recently seen a rapid rise in new cases. It is possible that these recent rises in cases are due to localized outbreaks. Revised versions are shown below.

Baden-Warttemberg

bw

Bavaria

by

Berlin through June 10

be

Berlin through June 19

be

Brandenburg

bb

Bremen

hb

Hamburg

hh

Hesse

he

Lower Saxony

ni

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

mv

North Rhine-Westphalia

nw

Rhineland-Palatinate

rp

Saarland

sl

Saxony

sn

Saxony-Anhalt through June 10

st

Saxony-Anhalt through June 20

st

Schleswig-Holstein

sh

Thuringia

th

Tables

The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.3. These are shown for purposes of comparison.

daily growth/decline rates (δ)

state δ0 trans δ1 δ2 fd dd
bw 0.138 +/- 0.004 24 -0.050 +/- 0.001 -0.063 +/- 0.008 0.037 17.7
by 0.180 +/- 0.006 23 -0.049 +/- 0.002 -0.038 +/- 0.012 0.039 18.8
be 0.158 +/- 0.011 20 -0.039 +/- 0.002 -0.006 +/- 0.014 0.023 23.0
be* 0.142 +/- 0.011 20 -0.036 +/- 0.005 0.073 +/- 0.022 0.023 23.0
bb 0.109 +/- 0.012 28 -0.035 +/- 0.006 -0.118 +/- 0.045 0.037 18.4
hh 0.134 +/- 0.010 21 -0.044 +/- 0.003 -0.056 +/- 0.018 0.038 28.0
he 0.130 +/- 0.011 22 -0.031 +/- 0.004 -0.024 +/- 0.011 0.038 19.5
ni 0.195 +/- 0.014 20 -0.037 +/- 0.002 0.001 +/- 0.008 0.038 19.2
nw 0.155 +/- 0.007 21 -0.036 +/- 0.001 -0.036 +/- 0.007 0.033 18.9
rp 0.136 +/- 0.013 21 -0.044 +/- 0.004 -0.039 +/- 0.016 0.026 23.4
sl 0.141 +/- 0.014 27 -0.069 +/- 0.007 -0.050 +/- 0.025 0.044 19.0
sn 0.153 +/- 0.008 22 -0.044 +/- 0.004 -0.026 +/- 0.019 0.031 19.8
st 0.133 +/- 0.020 22 -0.042 +/- 0.010 -0.095 +/- 0.059 0.024 18.4
sh 0.162 +/- 0.027 21 -0.041 +/- 0.009 -0.052 +/- 0.032 0.035 21.0
th 0.174 +/- 0.028 20 -0.016 +/- 0.010 -0.030 +/- 0.019 0.046 24.4

Infection status

The following plots summarize the infection history. The upper plot shows the daily growth/decline from the fit. Bands show approximate 95% CL intervals. The lower plot shows the size of the infection: the uncorrected circulating contagious population per million.

Baden-Warttemberg

bw

Bavaria

by

Berlin through June 10

be

Berlin through June 19

be

Brandenburg

bb

Bremen

hb

Hamburg

hh

Hesse

he

Lower Saxony

ni

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

mv

North Rhine-Westphalia

nw

Rhineland-Palatinate

rp

Saarland

sl

Saxony

sn

Saxony-Anhalt

st

Schleswig-Holstein

sh

Thuringia

th

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