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June 20, 2020 Analysis of BC regional data

The following shows graphs followed by tables. All regional data are consistent with a single change in transmission rate and a case reporting anomaly. Cases from the Northern Health region are not shown because there are very few cases reported.

BC total

bc

Fraser

fraser

Interior

interior

Island

island

Coastal

A small outbreak appears to be underway starting in mid June.

coastal

Tables

The tables below are results from the fits to reference model 2.3. These are shown for purposes of comparison.

Daily fractional growth rates (δ)

HA δ0 day 1 δ1 day 2 δ2
bc 0.105 18 -0.029 80 0.026
bc* 0.187 +/- 0.030 16 -0.040 +/- 0.008 80 -0.011 +/- 0.024
fraser 0.131 18 -0.014 80 -0.002
interior 0.224 18 -0.104    
island 0.124 15 -0.058    
coastal 0.096 18 -0.061    

Infection status

The following plots summarize the infection history. The upper plot shows the daily growth/decline from the fit. Bands show approximate 95% CL intervals. The lower plot shows the size of the infection: the uncorrected circulating contagious population per million.

BC total

bc

Fraser

fraser

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